ctsats
made their 11th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 62%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
28% (-1%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
72% (+1%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?

Here is an updated table with what we know so far:


2024 Q1-2025 Q2-2025 H1-2025* Apr May Jun
Australia 77.1 77.2 77.2 77.2 77.3 77.2 77.2
Canada 74.7 74.3 74.1 74.2 74.0 74.1 74.3
Chile 64.1 64.2 64.3 64.25


Colombia 62.9 64.0

64.5 64.4
Israel 69.3 69.4 69.5 69.45


Japan 79.4 79.9

79.9 80.1
Korea 69.5 69.7 69.9 69.8 69.9 69.9 69.8
USA 71.9 71.9 71.8 71.85 71.9 71.7 71.7
OECD 70.2 70.4




*calculated as the average of Q1 & Q2

This may be a relatively small list (only 8 out of 38 OECD member states), but it includes the largest economy (USA), two more countries from the G7 (Japan, Canada), and two more countries from the G20 (Australia, Korea), so their cumulative weight is arguably rather high.

Also, anyone expecting that the employment rate should be correlated to the economic growth in a more or less straightforward manner may find my comment below about Japan useful (or at least interesting)...

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Why might you be wrong?

As before

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