From the daily NIFC sitrep (p. 10), the total acres burnt YTD as of today, July 19, is at 2,834,436
From our resolution source, the cumulative number of acres burnt from January to June is 1,789,582
The difference between the 2 numbers, i.e. the acres burnt in July 1-19, is at 1,044,854. This number is at ~81% of the required threshold in ~61% of the time, with 12 more days to go. ~10,000 acres were added today.
Why do you think you're right?
The difference between the 2 numbers, i.e. the acres burnt in July 1-19, is at 1,044,854. This number is at ~81% of the required threshold in ~61% of the time, with 12 more days to go. ~10,000 acres were added today.
Why might you be wrong?
Black swans only