[last update: Sep 13]

We now have Q2 and July-August readings from several countries.

Here is the updated table of what we know so far:

*calculated as the average of Q1 & Q2

**difference between H1-2025 & 2024

We see that the downward trend in Canada and the US seems to continue into July. A large drop in New Zealand is also revealed, but its largest part (from 78.5 in 2024 to 77.5 in Q1) has already been factored in the aggregate OECD reading for Q1. 

Assuming the OECD weights for global CPI (which seem very similar, although not identical, to the ones used here), the 13 countries shown in the table represent ~72% of OECD.

Assuming the same weighting scheme, according to my summary table, and comparing the (calculated) H1-2025 value versus 2024:

• 6 countries (~53% aggregated weight) are trending down, from -0.05 to -0.5 (outlier New Zealand at -1.1)
• 7 countries (~20% aggregated weight) are trending up, from +0.1 to +0.6 (outlier Colombia at +1.4)

UPDATE Aug 16 - It would seem that the large drop in New Zealand is largely the result of problems endemic in their own economy, and not necessarily part of a larger pattern; see New Zealand's population exodus hits 13-year high as economy worsens (Reuters, Aug 15).