Maybe i'm confused. I see the data through 9/6/2025 as showing 2 cases int he past week. Or if that data is incomplete 11 cases in the week prior to that. Which data shows 23 cases in the last week?
You are not confused - there are indeed 2 different ways for measuring "new" cases: one is to check the number indicated in the last week, as you say here (which is indeed 2, and it has been even 0 in previous updates); that number will always (I mean, always) be revised upward in next updates, usually significantly: the previous week, now shown at 11, was at 0 when it was first reported, 2 weeks ago, and most probably it will be more than 11 at the Sep 10 report (and possibly even higher at the Sep 17 one)... Compare the reported 25 cases of the week starting Aug 17 in the latest update with the update of just 3 weeks ago (Aug 20), when this number was reported as 0 (well, it was obviously not zero)...
The other, safer way, is to count the aggregate difference between updates: so, 1431 total cases in the last update minus 1408 total cases in the previous one gives us 23 "new" cases (mind the quotes). This number and its evolution is actually what we are trying to guess here, and it is heavily influenced by revisions of previous weeks, not so much of the latest one. And this number has not been low in the last weeks (if we stick to the average of the last 4-5 weeks, i.e. ~20/week, we are easily above 1,500 total cases by Sep 30)... The fact that most people here are upping their estimates for bin 3 after the latest update is neither unreasonable nor irrational.
Super helpful, thanks. So the weekly numbers get revised upward, and typically within about 2 weeks of when they are first posted. That's helpful, and I'll revise accordingly.
Why do you think you're right?
every week with low numbers it gets a little more likely to come in under 1500
Why might you be wrong?
Wouldn't take a big unexpected spike to exceed 1500.
You are not confused - there are indeed 2 different ways for measuring "new" cases: one is to check the number indicated in the last week, as you say here (which is indeed 2, and it has been even 0 in previous updates); that number will always (I mean, always) be revised upward in next updates, usually significantly: the previous week, now shown at 11, was at 0 when it was first reported, 2 weeks ago, and most probably it will be more than 11 at the Sep 10 report (and possibly even higher at the Sep 17 one)... Compare the reported 25 cases of the week starting Aug 17 in the latest update with the update of just 3 weeks ago (Aug 20), when this number was reported as 0 (well, it was obviously not zero)...
The other, safer way, is to count the aggregate difference between updates: so, 1431 total cases in the last update minus 1408 total cases in the previous one gives us 23 "new" cases (mind the quotes). This number and its evolution is actually what we are trying to guess here, and it is heavily influenced by revisions of previous weeks, not so much of the latest one. And this number has not been low in the last weeks (if we stick to the average of the last 4-5 weeks, i.e. ~20/week, we are easily above 1,500 total cases by Sep 30)... The fact that most people here are upping their estimates for bin 3 after the latest update is neither unreasonable nor irrational.
Super helpful, thanks. So the weekly numbers get revised upward, and typically within about 2 weeks of when they are first posted. That's helpful, and I'll revise accordingly.
Revisions routinely go further than just 2 weeks in the past; and then again, we may have data bombs, i.e. bulk revisions of past data, such as the one we had in June: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/174210