Russian President Vladimir Putin's current term is set to expire in March 2024. The modifications to the Russian constitution passed in 2020 'nullified' Putin's prior terms, allowing him to run for president in 2024 for a six-year term, as well as again in 2030, extending his potential rule until 2036.
In April 2023, more than 80% of Russians approved of Russian President Vladimir Putin's actions. The level of popularity was 6% greater than in September 2022, when it stood at 77%. The Russian state-controlled media's promotion of a mission to "denazify" Ukraine and return it to Russia, where it historically belonged, explains why Putin's approval rating remains so high despite the country's exclusion from the international community and the hardships of sanctions and war mobilization. Despite the findings of an independent researcher, Russians may nevertheless feel compelled to support the president due to the repressive system in which they live. In a statement, the Levada Center stated that, while surveys only indicate the conduct that people are prepared to display publicly, survey-taking behavior has not changed since the invasion. This suggests that Russians may still feel a sense of loyalty towards their government, even if they privately disagree with certain policies or actions. It also highlights the importance of considering the context and environment in which survey data is collected. However it nullifies Putin losing an election.
A more detailed view:
Given a quite detailed analysis by blednotik on metaculus which puts the prediction of Putin leaving to 2025-2033. The most plausible reason is natural death, "The average life expectancy of Russian men is low. The reason for this is the very unhealthy lifestyle they lead. Many of them have problems with alcohol, about half of the Russian men smoke, most do not eat right, many do not care about their health and do not want to go to the doctors. The quality of medicine varies, it can be high in Moscow or St. Petersburg and low in the provinces. None of this has anything to do with Putin. He leads a healthy lifestyle, takes care of his health and has access to the best available medicine. Therefore, the average life expectancy of ordinary Russian men cannot be used as a baseline for Putin's life expectancy. He is not from that group. In the U.S., the average life expectancy for 70yo men who never smoked was 88 years in 2013. However, in 10 years life expectancy has increased (if we do not take into account covid-19, which is accounted below) and may increase even more. In addition, we know that Putin has no drinking problems or overweight, and that he takes his health seriously.
As for covid-19, given what we know about Putin, he has been vaccinated with the best Western vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna). All this allows us to estimate his life expectancy at 90 years.
The only other plausible attempt seems to be an assassination but the probability of that being successful does not seem too high. According to the second in command of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyiv's agents are actively attempting to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin—and the Russian leader is well aware of it. In an interview with the German newspaper Welt, Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy chief of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, made the revelation.
According to the Russian presidential administration, the Kremlin was assaulted by drones overnight in an effort to assassinate President Vladimir Putin. Residents in Moscow reported hearing two explosions behind the Kremlin walls shortly after 2 a.m. local time, followed by the lights going out. Residents on a local Telegram channel captured the occurrence, with smoke filling the sky over the Kremlin. Videos purported to show a section of the Kremlin on fire.
Putin is also now a wanted man which further solidifies his agenda to be in power if it was not already solid before. The International Criminal Court (ICC) put out a warrant for the Russian president's arrest because of accusations that he committed war crimes. This means that he could be arrested in 123 countries, but neither China nor Russia are on that list. The court says he is responsible for war crimes, and its main claim is that he sent children from Ukraine to Russia without a legal reason.
It says that the crimes happened in Ukraine starting on February 24, 2022, which is when Russia started its full-scale invasion. Moscow has said that the claims are not true and that the warrants are "outrageous." The International Criminal Court (ICC) does not have the power to arrest suspects, and it can only rule in its member countries. Russia is not one of those countries. But it could affect the president in other ways, like making it impossible for him to travel internationally. It also means that when he leaves office, he will be in a worse position.
Why do you think you're right?
Russian President Vladimir Putin's current term is set to expire in March 2024. The modifications to the Russian constitution passed in 2020 'nullified' Putin's prior terms, allowing him to run for president in 2024 for a six-year term, as well as again in 2030, extending his potential rule until 2036.
In April 2023, more than 80% of Russians approved of Russian President Vladimir Putin's actions. The level of popularity was 6% greater than in September 2022, when it stood at 77%. The Russian state-controlled media's promotion of a mission to "denazify" Ukraine and return it to Russia, where it historically belonged, explains why Putin's approval rating remains so high despite the country's exclusion from the international community and the hardships of sanctions and war mobilization. Despite the findings of an independent researcher, Russians may nevertheless feel compelled to support the president due to the repressive system in which they live. In a statement, the Levada Center stated that, while surveys only indicate the conduct that people are prepared to display publicly, survey-taking behavior has not changed since the invasion. This suggests that Russians may still feel a sense of loyalty towards their government, even if they privately disagree with certain policies or actions. It also highlights the importance of considering the context and environment in which survey data is collected. However it nullifies Putin losing an election.
A more detailed view:
Given a quite detailed analysis by blednotik on metaculus which puts the prediction of Putin leaving to 2025-2033. The most plausible reason is natural death, "The average life expectancy of Russian men is low. The reason for this is the very unhealthy lifestyle they lead. Many of them have problems with alcohol, about half of the Russian men smoke, most do not eat right, many do not care about their health and do not want to go to the doctors. The quality of medicine varies, it can be high in Moscow or St. Petersburg and low in the provinces. None of this has anything to do with Putin. He leads a healthy lifestyle, takes care of his health and has access to the best available medicine. Therefore, the average life expectancy of ordinary Russian men cannot be used as a baseline for Putin's life expectancy. He is not from that group. In the U.S., the average life expectancy for 70yo men who never smoked was 88 years in 2013. However, in 10 years life expectancy has increased (if we do not take into account covid-19, which is accounted below) and may increase even more. In addition, we know that Putin has no drinking problems or overweight, and that he takes his health seriously.
As for covid-19, given what we know about Putin, he has been vaccinated with the best Western vaccines (Pfizer or Moderna). All this allows us to estimate his life expectancy at 90 years.
As for the rumors that Putin has cancer, in July 2022, CIA Director Bill Burns stated that Putin is "entirely too healthy"."
The only other plausible attempt seems to be an assassination but the probability of that being successful does not seem too high. According to the second in command of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kyiv's agents are actively attempting to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin—and the Russian leader is well aware of it. In an interview with the German newspaper Welt, Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy chief of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate, made the revelation.
According to the Russian presidential administration, the Kremlin was assaulted by drones overnight in an effort to assassinate President Vladimir Putin. Residents in Moscow reported hearing two explosions behind the Kremlin walls shortly after 2 a.m. local time, followed by the lights going out. Residents on a local Telegram channel captured the occurrence, with smoke filling the sky over the Kremlin. Videos purported to show a section of the Kremlin on fire.
Putin is also now a wanted man which further solidifies his agenda to be in power if it was not already solid before. The International Criminal Court (ICC) put out a warrant for the Russian president's arrest because of accusations that he committed war crimes. This means that he could be arrested in 123 countries, but neither China nor Russia are on that list. The court says he is responsible for war crimes, and its main claim is that he sent children from Ukraine to Russia without a legal reason.
It says that the crimes happened in Ukraine starting on February 24, 2022, which is when Russia started its full-scale invasion. Moscow has said that the claims are not true and that the warrants are "outrageous." The International Criminal Court (ICC) does not have the power to arrest suspects, and it can only rule in its member countries. Russia is not one of those countries. But it could affect the president in other ways, like making it impossible for him to travel internationally. It also means that when he leaves office, he will be in a worse position.
Why might you be wrong?