Forecasting on Africa for U.S. Security Policy

The RAND Forecasting Initiative is working with researchers exploring key under-examined security issues affecting the African continent and African Diaspora countries. The featured forecast questions below have been co-authored with the RAND Africa research team to elicit crowd perspectives for some of the most urgent areas of policymaker concern.

Learn more on our blog

FEATURED QUESTIONS
Forecasts in Past Week
Crowd Forecast

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

7

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Ended

100%

Chance

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

13

17%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 29, 2024 and Oct 1, 2024)

Ended

0%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 1, 2024 and Nov 1, 2024)

Ended

0%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2024 and Dec 1, 2024)

Ended

0%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025)

Ended

0%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 1, 2025 and Feb 1, 2025)

Ended

0%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 1, 2025 and Mar 1, 2025)

Ended

0%

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Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 1, 2025 and Apr 1, 2025)

Ended

0%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025)

Ended

100%

Chance

Try it out:

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

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