Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Closed Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC
- “Self-coups,” where a leader who came to power legally uses illegal means to remain in power, including the refusal by an incumbent government to relinquish power after free, fair, and regular elections.
- The replacement of a democratically elected government by mercenaries or other external actors will count towards resolution IF they are working in support of a state perpetrator.
- A civil war, rebellion, or popular uprising.
- Changes to a country’s constitution or laws that infringe on democracy.
Note regarding the 2021 coup in Chad: In January 2021, president Idriss Déby Itno died in battle against rebel forces, and in response, the military dissolved the government and installed his son, General Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, as a transitional president in violation of Chad’s constitution (BBC). The U.S. government declined to call this a coup, which would trigger a halt of security assistance funding to a country considered an important ally in the war on terror (Foreign Policy). However, this situation is still considered a coup for the purposes of this question.
On Sunday, 12 September 2025, Malagasy president Andry Rajoelina declared that a coup was underway in Madagascar and fled the county. CAPSAT, an elite military unit in Madagascar, declared that it had seized power, and CAPSAT commander Col Michael Randrianirina was named the country’s new leader, resulting in a successful coup.
https://apnews.com/article/madagascar-protests-rajoelina-ab1e1eb1aca45fe7e80e81314ebdb0c6
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cqxr3y3788pt
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 28% | |
| No | 72% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 95 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 838 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |