Forecasted Questions
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2025 05:03PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Oct 31, 2025 05:03PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | 7% | +7% | +0% |
| No | 86% | 93% | -7% | +0% |
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 13, 2025 06:47PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Nov 13, 2025 06:47PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 25% | 85% | -60% | +6% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 60% | 55% | +5% | +4% |
Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 24, 2025 06:34PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Nov 24, 2025 06:34PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 2% | +11% | +0% |
| No | 87% | 98% | -11% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2026 07:17AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Jan 01, 2026 07:17AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 4% | 3% | +1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |