RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.000013
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	0.00002
Jan 19, 2024 03:26PM UTC	Will a moon mission land safely on the moon between 1 September 2023 and 31 May 2024, inclusive?	-0.013729
Jan 17, 2024 05:00PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for October, November, and December 2023 combined?	0.744935
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 9,000 or more protests and riots in Pakistan?	-0.000008
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Yemen?	0.0
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, will ACLED record 2,000 or more fatalities due to battles in Democratic Republic of Congo?	0.803976
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2023, how many fatalities from violence against civilians in Mexico will ACLED record?	0.237321
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador?	-0.000317
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.058263
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?	-0.306961
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	0.699715
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	-0.000408
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.016153
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	0.133097
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	0.916893
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	0.332648
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC	What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?	0.223313
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023)	0.0
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023)	-0.00012

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