Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?
Started
Mar 23, 2023 07:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, BBC).
This question will resolve “Yes” if the Lebanese parliament appoints a president on or before 31 December 2023, as reported by reputable open-source news media coverage (e.g., AP News, Reuters, New York Times).
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.28% | |
| No | 99.72% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 67 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 60 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 467 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 228 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
