Confirmed previous forecast
0.582464
Relative Brier Score
162
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 7 | 23 | 162 | 162 | 163 |
| Comments | 2 | 10 | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Dec 5, 2025 to Jun 5, 2026
100%
(+1%)
No
Dec 5, 2025 to Jun 5, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
There is a lack of meaningful progress toward new diplomatic agreements.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Saudi Arabia could come around if Israel agrees to a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state. (Fortune)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-3%)
Yes
85%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering due to passage of time; previous rationale applies.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A verbal commitment to provide HIMARS is still possible if talks fail.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).