Lowering probability due to passage of time. China and Russia have no incentive to sanction these countries' energy sectors. Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE are strategic partners for the US and EU, with deep military, economic, and counterterrorism cooperation. Sanctioning their state-owned energy firms would potentially undermine regional security partnerships.
0.521249
Relative Brier Score
173
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 11 | 176 | 173 | 177 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 112 | 109 | 112 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If concrete evidence emerges that a state-owned entity in the UAE, Egypt, or Jordan is facilitating sanctioned Russian or Iranian oil flows in violation of price caps or sanctions regimes, the US or EU might impose direct sanctions to send a clear deterrent message. The diplomatic costs of such action probably would be manageable from the US and EU perspective.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time decay
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An announcement is a lower bar.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jan 29, 2026
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 29, 2025 to Jun 29, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-15%)
Yes
100%
(+15%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Even though the question requires only a formal commitment or announcement by December 31, 2025, not actual delivery of systems, I don't think there's enough time for this to occur.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Europeans could feel pressure to make an announcement before yearend to show continued commitment to Ukraine.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The threat environment is concerning: cyber disruptions, jamming, spoofing, and electronic interference are on the rise. But those tactics allow attackers to degrade or temporarily neutralize satellite capabilities with plausible deniability—and without generating orbital debris.
A permanently disabled satellite has never happened and could prompt major diplomatic and military consequences as well as environmental challenges from space debris. Deterrence and norms will probably hold.
Why might you be wrong?
-The proliferation of satellites will create even more targets and opportunities for attack by 2027.
-There is no base rate for this question, which makes forecasting all the more difficult.
-Perhaps an attack that an adversary intends to be reversible may exceed expectations.