Lowering due to passage of time; previous rationale applies.
0.582464
Relative Brier Score
159
Forecasts
14
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 20 | 159 | 159 | 160 |
| Comments | 2 | 10 | 107 | 107 | 107 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 12 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 15 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(-3%)
Yes
85%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A verbal commitment to provide HIMARS is still possible if talks fail.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Nov 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
(-10%)
Yes
82%
(+10%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
There's not much time left for European action, and Europe is currently focused on its recently submitted counterproposal to the US's peace plan for Ukraine. Talks continue in Geneva making this an unlikely time for a HIMARS commitment from Europe. (Reuters)
In addition, HIMARS is less in the spotlight now that electronic warfare and jamming, along with the arrival of other advanced long-range strike systems, have reduced HIMARS' effectiveness, aside from some tactical ballistic missile strikes. HIMARS has also suffered shortages of ammunition, limiting effectiveness. (Business Insider)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as of October still identified HIMARS as a priority for his military, so a friendly country might provide it if Russia walks away from negotiations.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
100%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time decay.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Economic collapse generally unfolds over several months, not days, but a major combined shock like the loss of Gulf or IMF funding amid conflict‑related revenue losses could trigger a sharp crisis within a month.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There is a lack of meaningful progress toward new diplomatic agreements.
Why might you be wrong?
Saudi Arabia could come around if Israel agrees to a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state. (Fortune)