18th
Accuracy Rank

EQ

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026? 0.012481
Jan 01, 2026 05:01AM UTC Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025? -0.010158
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? 0.005414
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025? -0.007948
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? 0.000255
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? -0.000083
Jun 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2025 and Jun 2, 2025) -0.000174
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025) -0.00022
May 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2025 and May 2, 2025) -0.000027
Apr 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 1, 2025 and Apr 1, 2025) -0.013423
Mar 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 1, 2025 and Mar 1, 2025) -0.095821
Feb 01, 2025 07:00PM UTC Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 1, 2025 and Feb 1, 2025) -0.129135
Jan 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025) 0.0
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