Confirmed previous forecast
0.229048
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 65 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 29, 2025 03:56PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 29, 2025 to Jan 29, 2026
88%
(0%)
No
Jan 29, 2025 to Jan 29, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
Less than or equal to 59
40%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
23%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
10%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Starting off below the crowd given the upcoming early election on February 23, 2025, as Germany may see a drop off of disinformation cases after the election given the decreased incentive for Russia to influence public perception at that point and could return its focus on other fronts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Growing sophistication of disinformation campaigns, potential for unexpected increase of disinformation campaigns after the German election due to some other Russian campaign/target
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
six months left for question, Putin has suppressed opposition within Russia, no major health concerns
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 7, 2025 05:45PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
Yes
Jan 7, 2025 to Jul 7, 2025
95%
No
Jan 7, 2025 to Jul 7, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Starting low due to North Korea's current focus supporting Russia
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
0%
(-1%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
n/a
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Kuwait
0%
(0%)
Oman
0%
(0%)
Qatar
1%
(0%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(0%)
Tunisia
Why do you think you're right?
time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
n/a
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 17, 2025 07:07PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(+4%)
Yes
Dec 17, 2024 to Dec 17, 2025
88%
(-4%)
No
Dec 17, 2024 to Dec 17, 2025
following the crowd and increasing likelihood of this occurring in the next year
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Updating
Why might you be wrong?