Forecasted Questions
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 04, 2024 03:03PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Nov 04, 2024 03:03PM UTC
(6 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2024 04:13PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Nov 30, 2024 04:13PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angola | 5% | 5% | +0% | -5% |
| Kenya | 5% | 4% | +1% | -4% |
| Ethiopia | 40% | 22% | +18% | -10% |
| Nigeria | 5% | 3% | +2% | -2% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:23PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2025 05:23PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +1% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026 | Apr 30, 2025 | 7% | -3% | +1% |
| No | 96% | Jan 31, 2025 to Jan 31, 2026 | Apr 30, 2025 | 93% | +3% | -1% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +1% |
| No | 100% | 98% | +2% | -1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2025 05:24PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 7% | -2% | +0% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +1% |
| Georgia | 2% | 5% | -3% | +1% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2025 05:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | +0% | -16% |
| No | 94% | 94% | +0% | +16% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2025 05:31PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 60% | 35% | +25% | -2% |
| No | 40% | 65% | -25% | +2% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2025 05:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2025 05:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 4% | -2% | -2% |
| No | 98% | 96% | +2% | +2% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 07, 2025 06:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Feb 07, 2025 06:32PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 8% | -7% | -5% |
| No | 99% | 92% | +7% | +5% |