Confirmed previous forecast
1.197881
Relative Brier Score
47
Forecasts
4
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 72 | 47 | 590 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 17 | 16 | 165 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 38 | 25 | 128 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 80 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 1, 2025 02:18AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
95%
(0%)
No
Nov 1, 2025 to May 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Recent search from Hotel-Online (from June 24) indicates that international air passenger enplanements to and from the United States are down 0.8% since May 2025.
Specifically, non-U.S. citizen air passenger arrivals were down 5.3% compared to May 2024. While air travel is only one component, it's a significant one, and a decline here doesn't bode well for hitting a high overall target.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Maybe travelers from other parts of the world can make up for the loss in tourism from Canada and the EU. Seems doubtful, though.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 7, 2025 03:38PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 7, 2025 to Jan 7, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Jul 7, 2025 to Jan 7, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(0%)
Less than 2.3%
50%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2.3% but less than 2.6%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2.6% but less than 2.9%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 2.9% but less than 3.2%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 3.2%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Angola
5%
(0%)
Kenya
40%
(0%)
Ethiopia
5%
(0%)
Nigeria
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Aug 7, 2025 03:37PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Jul 7, 2025 to Jan 7, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Jul 7, 2025 to Jan 7, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files