Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 4 | 44 | 4 | 604 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 166 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 4 | 19 | 4 | 128 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 80 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Show more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast will expire on Jan 31, 2026
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-5%)
Yes
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
100%
(+5%)
No
Dec 31, 2025 to Jun 30, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Updating with the passage of time.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still possible, I guess...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 9, 2026 05:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 9, 2025 to Jun 9, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files