Forecasted Questions
Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2025 04:52PM UTC
(10 days ago)
Dec 07, 2025 04:52PM UTC
(10 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Entity | 92% | 81% | +11% | +2% |
| Non-U.S. Entity | 62% | 55% | +7% | +1% |