Forecasted Questions
Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
(4 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:55AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:55AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7% | 7% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 93% | 93% | +0% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:55AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:55AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Togo | 5% | 4% | +1% | -1% |
| Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct | |||
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:55AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:55AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 98% | 97% | +1% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:57AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:57AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 76% | 68% | +8% | +0% |
| 30 days | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| 31-60 days | 12% | 5% | +7% | +0% |
| 61-90 days | 1% | 5% | -4% | 0% |
| 91 days or more | 9% | 16% | -7% | +1% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 5% | 6% | -1% | +0% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 7% | 3% | +4% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | 0% |
Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 100% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 100% | +0% | +1% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(15 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 03:58AM UTC
(16 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |