Confirmed previous forecast
-0.415265
Relative Brier Score
7
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 25 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 49
0%
(0%)
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
20%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
70%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 14, 2025 07:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 14, 2025 to Sep 14, 2025
70%
(0%)
No
Mar 14, 2025 to Sep 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 14, 2025 07:46PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
29%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 14, 2025 to Sep 14, 2025
71%
(0%)
No
Mar 14, 2025 to Sep 14, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Argentina
21%
(0%)
Bolivia
16%
(0%)
Ecuador
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 49
0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive
20%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
70%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
10%
More than or equal to 80
Why do you think you're right?
Increased threat of nuclear-weapon use, Russia has signaled that Germany is a top adversary/target for their attacks, significant presence of US bases and military which would incentivize Russia
Files
Why might you be wrong?
New administration in the US may cause changes in EU/German geopolitical strategy and may shift tensions in the RUS/Ukraine war
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Implantable Devices
20%
Environmental Sensors
40%
Personal Electronics
30%
Advanced Computing
Why do you think you're right?
Increasing commodification of personal health - why high percentage for personal electronics
Implantable devices - low percentage because unpredictable, risky, would receive less priority in comparison to other categories.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Environmental sensors value may be lower than 20% due to political dynamics and diminishing support for sustainable measures
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 15, 2025 06:05PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
Yes
Jan 15, 2025 to Jul 15, 2025
70%
No
Jan 15, 2025 to Jul 15, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
I think with the inauguration of Donald Trump into US office, the South China Sea will increasingly become more tense and North Korea may send a message through the form of an attack on South Korea or other vessels in the region.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is unclear the relationship that will be fostered between Trump and NK or whether North Korea will reach a physical confrontation directly with South Korea instead of a verbal threat or a missile launch as a warning.
Files