RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Oct 12, 2025 03:27PM UTC	Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 1, 2025 and Oct 12, 2025)	-0.081852
Oct 01, 2025 04:00PM UTC	Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?	-0.004377
Aug 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?	0.000408
Jul 01, 2025 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?	0.000004
May 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 28, 2025 and May 28, 2025)	0.0079
Apr 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 28, 2025 and Apr 28, 2025)	0.011894

Jake-Williams