Putin has so far demonstrated his ability to hold on to power, despite initial missteps in the Ukraine war and internal power struggles within the Russian establishment. I think it is highly unlikely that in less than a year there will be a crisis within Russia that threatens the foundations of his power.
0.000991
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
Yes
96%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I would be wrong if a military setback in Ukraine or some other kind of problem within Russia caused a serious political crisis that Putin was unable to manage well and led to a change of leadership by other interested parties within the Russian establishment.
I would also be wrong if, during this period, Putin suffered some kind of health problem that prevented him from continuing in office.
Files
The main reason for ceaseing to be president is an unlikely health issue