Too definite.
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 18 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
who knows
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 12, 2024 01:36AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
100%
No
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
have no money to; domestically not stable enought to do that (need a timing that incents more nationalism)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
i must be right
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Dec 12, 2024 01:33AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
18%
(0%)
Yes
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
82%
(0%)
No
Nov 12, 2024 to May 12, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 22, 2024 12:38AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
Yes
Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
80%
No
Oct 22, 2024 to Apr 22, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
I don't think the military power that North Korea has will be able to risk going into a second Korean War; their alliances are very little as well, given that USSR fallen and China is too occupied with its domestic economy and international trade war with the US.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
In case that DPRK wants to utilize the timing of the shaky American election to control the amount of western support South Korea gets. Plus if the attack is minor, in a way that's only disturbing the ownership of the islands, but not actual attack
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Not likely
Why might you be wrong?
Chance