MajesticWalrus

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New Prediction
MajesticWalrus
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Jun 8, 2025 03:04AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
May 8, 2025 to Nov 8, 2025
90%
No
May 8, 2025 to Nov 8, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

High Risk and Cost: An invasion would be enormously complex, with high potential for failure and massive casualties — militarily and politically devastating.

Severe International Backlash: A military assault on Taiwan would likely trigger U.S. military involvement and severe economic sanctions from much of the world.

Insufficient Combat Experience: Despite its size, the PLA lacks real war experience, especially in amphibious warfare, urban combat, and sustained operations.

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Why might you be wrong?

Military Readiness Increasing: China has rapidly modernized its military, conducting large-scale exercises simulating blockades and amphibious invasions around Taiwan.

Political Will from Xi Jinping: The Chinese leadership has repeatedly stated that reunification with Taiwan is a historic mission, and Xi may want to solidify his legacy through decisive action.

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My First Question

Congratulations on making your first forecast!
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Why do you think you're right?

Because Apple (The current biggest Company in the world by market cap) is also making a push to develop AI, so its unlikely that it happenes

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Why might you be wrong?

If Nvidia is hiding some type of develpment in chip manufacturing or a breakthrough in AI development is could become the biggest company in the world by market cap

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