Forecasted Questions
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
31 Forecasts
31 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:30AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:30AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026 | Jan 4, 2026 | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 96% | Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026 | Jan 4, 2026 | 98% | -2% | +0% |
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
30 Forecasts
30 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:30AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:30AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026 | Jan 4, 2026 | 1% | +3% | 0% |
| No | 96% | Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026 | Jan 4, 2026 | 99% | -3% | 0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
54 Forecasts
54 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:31AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:31AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 2% | 6% | -4% | 0% |
| Armenia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Georgia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 2% | 1% | +1% | 0% |
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:31AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:31AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $21.0 billion | 20% | 21% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion | 48% | 43% | +5% | +1% |
| More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion | 20% | 14% | +6% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion | 8% | 9% | -1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $25.0 billion | 4% | 13% | -9% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:33AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:33AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Not before 2026 | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:34AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:34AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 62% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 62% but less than 66% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 66% but less than 70% | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 70% but less than 74% | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 74% | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups globally be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $1 billion | 72% | 84% | -12% | +2% |
| More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion | 18% | 11% | +7% | -1% |
| More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion | 6% | 3% | +3% | -1% |
| More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $1.6 billion | 1% | 0% | +1% | +0% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the U.S. be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $350 million | 23% | 43% | -20% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million | 28% | 35% | -7% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million | 28% | 15% | +13% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million | 16% | 5% | +11% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $650 million | 5% | 2% | +3% | +0% |
What will the total amount of seed funding for biotech startups in the EU, UK, and Switzerland be in 2025 and 2026 combined, according to Labiotech?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:36AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $350 million | 17% | 28% | -11% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million | 29% | 45% | -16% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million | 29% | 22% | +7% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million | 21% | 5% | +16% | +0% |
| More than or equal to $800 million | 4% | 1% | +3% | +0% |
How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(26 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 04:41AM UTC
(2 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 04:41AM UTC
(2 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S. | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than €0 but less than €10 billion | 0% | 1% | -1% | 0% |
| At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion | 2% | 5% | -3% | +0% |
| At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion | 41% | 51% | -10% | 0% |
| €30 billion or more | 57% | 43% | +14% | 0% |