Confirmed previous forecast
0.431214
Relative Brier Score
847
Forecasts
39
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 15 | 87 | 959 | 847 | 3173 |
| Comments | 4 | 21 | 354 | 340 | 397 |
| Questions Forecasted | 15 | 41 | 99 | 84 | 170 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 4 | 43 | 39 | 226 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Togo
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
2%
(0%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
41%
(0%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
57%
(0%)
€30 billion or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
29%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
29%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
21%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
28%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
28%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
16%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
72%
(+35%)
Less than $1 billion
18%
(-12%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
6%
(-16%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
3%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
1%
(-2%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Why do you think you're right?
We're just very far off from anything >$1bn even if the numbers we have are a meaningful undercount and more data shows up later
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99%
(+2%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Why do you think you're right?
All signs still pointing to the 70-74 bucket
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0%
(-1%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100%
(+1%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
No evidence that the current round of peace talks is going to yield any results. The parties are still just way too far apart and not even getting close
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
48%
(0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
20%
(0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
8%
(0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(-1%)
Armenia
2%
(-1%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026
96%
(0%)
No
Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files