SpaceX tends to have a pretty consistent launch pace of between 12-15 launches per month. The rate could trend up slightly over time but it would have to be unprecedentedly high to break 90 in six months. Some kind of launch pad issue could result in a slower than normal pace, I seem to recall this happened in 2023 and the rate was depressed for a few months.
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Relative Brier Score
39
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 2 | 39 | 886 | 39 | 3305 |
| Comments | 2 | 22 | 352 | 22 | 453 |
| Questions Forecasted | 2 | 34 | 85 | 34 | 182 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 229 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Power Forecaster - Jan 2026
Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
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Star Commenter - Jan 2026
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Less than 70
25%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
65%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
8%
Between 90 and 99, inclusive
0%
More than or equal to 100
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
Why do you think you're right?
No time for an election, and she's unlikely to leave of her own volition. Obviously the US could intervene again or there could be some kind of internal coup or disruption
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
96%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
1%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
32%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
22%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
11%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
39%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
28%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
21%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
88%
(0%)
Less than $1 billion
9%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
34%
(-3%)
Iván Cepeda
10%
(-3%)
Sergio Fajardo
46%
(-1%)
Abelardo de la Espriella
10%
(+7%)
Other
Why do you think you're right?
Updating to stay in sync with Kalshi
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
With only one resolution passed in 2025, the chance of one in the next 3 months seems <50%
Why might you be wrong?
Situation could change rapidly in the war and lead to a new resolution