Confirmed previous forecast
0.456742
Relative Brier Score
889
Forecasts
41
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 42 | 83 | 931 | 889 | 3215 |
| Comments | 18 | 31 | 368 | 358 | 415 |
| Questions Forecasted | 42 | 42 | 99 | 85 | 171 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 6 | 43 | 41 | 228 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
17%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
29%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $500 million
29%
(0%)
More than or equal to $500 million but less than $650 million
21%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million but less than $800 million
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to $800 million
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
23%
(0%)
Less than $350 million
28%
(0%)
More than or equal to $350 million but less than $450 million
28%
(0%)
More than or equal to $450 million but less than $550 million
16%
(0%)
More than or equal to $550 million but less than $650 million
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to $650 million
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
72%
(0%)
Less than $1 billion
18%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1 billion but less than $1.2 billion
6%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.2 billion but less than $1.4 billion
3%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.4 billion but less than $1.6 billion
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to $1.6 billion
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Europe allocates the same amount or less than the U.S.
0%
(0%)
More than €0 but less than €10 billion
0%
(-2%)
At least €10 billion but less than €20 billion
42%
(+1%)
At least €20 billion but less than €30 billion
58%
(+1%)
€30 billion or more
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-16%)
Less than $21.0 billion
67%
(+19%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
25%
(+5%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
3%
(-5%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
1%
(-3%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
62%
(0%)
Yes
38%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+15%)
U.S. Entity
75%
(+18%)
Non-U.S. Entity
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(+4%)
Togo
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 62%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99%
(0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-pm-says-he-will-speak-trump-late-friday-cambodia-clashes-2025-12-12/
20 just in the last week
Why might you be wrong?
N/A