Confirmed previous forecast
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Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 31 | 72 | 920 | 878 | 3204 |
| Comments | 13 | 26 | 363 | 353 | 410 |
| Questions Forecasted | 31 | 41 | 98 | 84 | 170 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 6 | 43 | 41 | 228 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
2%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
96%
(0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
~1 month down, reducing about 1% per month
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
96%
(0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(0%)
Less than 30 days
9%
(0%)
30 days
7%
(0%)
31-60 days
5%
(0%)
61-90 days
39%
(0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-9%)
Yes
99%
(+9%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump has lifted export restrictions on some NVidia chips. It seems extremely unlikely that new export controls are likely to be a priority over the holidays
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files