162nd
Accuracy Rank

MrLittleTexas

About:

Show more
View All Badges »
2023 Season Stats

-1.417849

Relative Brier Score

827

Forecasts

82

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 33 74 922 880 3206
Comments 13 26 363 353 410
Questions Forecasted 33 41 98 84 170
Upvotes on Comments By This User 1 6 43 41 228
 Definitions
New Prediction
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
MrLittleTexas made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 62%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99% (0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
MrLittleTexas made their 18th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0% (0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0% (0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
0% (0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
100% (0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
MrLittleTexas made their 55th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Moldova
2% (0%)
Armenia
2% (0%)
Georgia
2% (0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?
MrLittleTexas made their 31st forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
96% (0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

~1 month down, reducing about 1% per month

Files
Why might you be wrong?

N/A

Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
MrLittleTexas made their 32nd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (0%)
Yes
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
96% (0%)
No
Dec 18, 2025 to Jun 18, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
MrLittleTexas made their 18th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
40% (0%)
Less than 30 days
9% (0%)
30 days
7% (0%)
31-60 days
5% (0%)
61-90 days
39% (0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel