Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2025 08:24PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Mar 20, 2025 08:24PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 28% | 68% | -40% | +18% |
| 30 days | 58% | 6% | +52% | -13% |
| 31-60 days | 7% | 5% | +2% | -3% |
| 61-90 days | 5% | 5% | +0% | -1% |
| 91 days or more | 2% | 16% | -14% | -1% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2025 03:58PM UTC
(9 months ago)
Mar 26, 2025 03:58PM UTC
(9 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
| 1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 25% | 0% | +25% | -13% |
| 1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 15% | 0% | +15% | -14% |
| 1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 30% | 2% | +28% | -15% |
| Not before 2026 | 30% | 98% | -68% | +44% |