Russia's resistance to Ukraine entering NATO and Ukraine's determination to have this be part of ceasefire deal makes the chance of ceasefire unlikely.
0.000004
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is a lot of international and US efforts to make a ceasefire happen.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
25%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
15%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
30%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
30%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
It is unlikely a ceasefire will happen in the next week but slightly more likely it will happen in the next 3 months. The next 6 months might be less likely if a ceasefire deal hasn't already been reached. Oct to December has a higher likelihood due to winter weather affecting troops and may be a natural break for fighting. There is still a very good chance that no ceasefire deal will be made based on the history of this war and current unresolved issues.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This issue is still quite volatile. External pressures from the US and Europe might still change the outcomes. Particularly Trump's unreliable behavior makes it hard to predict.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
28%
Less than 30 days
58%
30 days
7%
31-60 days
5%
61-90 days
2%
91 days or more
Why do you think you're right?
3/18: "immediate pause in strikes against energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war, but the Russian leader stopped short of backing a broader 30-day pause in fighting that the U.S. administration is pressing for."
US leadership (Trump) is actively pushing for a cease fire but only for 30 days. International leadership pressure can often have an effect on whether cease fires are successful and there is a lot of international support for this idea.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Trump and Zelenskyy do not seem to see eye to eye (ref 2/2025 meeting), this can have a negative effect on possible negotiations despite having the same goal as far as a cease fire.
Putin and Zelenskyy have not shown signs of wanting to make concessions or disputed land or NATO membership, which means a long-lasting ceasefire is uncertain at this point.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
While all things are possible, history does not suggest that Putin will relinquish power in Russia.
Why might you be wrong?