# of possible outcomes above 549 is greater than the sum of all other buckets.
0.035354
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Less than 250
7%
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
16%
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
19%
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
52%
More than or equal to 550
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Variance in historical outcomes will likely continue.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Threatening to leave for leverage not for affect
Why might you be wrong?
Winds of change