Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2025 05:08PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Apr 22, 2025 05:08PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 9% | 6% | +3% | -1% |
| Armenia | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 4% | 3% | +1% | -2% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(22 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 22, 2025 05:15PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Apr 22, 2025 05:15PM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 69% | 68% | +1% | +2% |
| 30 days | 5% | 6% | -1% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 5% | 6% | -1% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 18% | 16% | +2% | +4% |