Forecasted Questions
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 06:14PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 06:14PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026 | Jan 1, 2026 | 99% | +1% | +0% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 01, 2025 06:14PM UTC
(17 days ago)
Dec 01, 2025 06:14PM UTC
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027 | Mar 1, 2026 | 6% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 91% | Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027 | Mar 1, 2026 | 94% | -3% | +0% |