Confirmed previous forecast
0.630777
Relative Brier Score
52
Forecasts
10
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 12 | 155 | 112 | 1601 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 36 | 27 | 202 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 12 | 46 | 34 | 201 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
9%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027
91%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2027
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
(0%)
Moldova
1%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
36%
(0%)
Yes
64%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
0%
(0%)
Latvia
0%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
97%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Dec 1, 2025 to Jun 1, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(0%)
Togo
Confirmed previous forecast
Files