1st
Accuracy Rank

SandroAVL

About:

Started forecasting in GJP 2.0, then at INFER (ARLIS-UMD) collaborating with RANGE, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND RFI and Cultivate Labs.

Testing a mental model, based on a set of parameters to increase accuracy, identifying patterns of bias, in order to increase forecast's process gain.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) -0.00261
Nov 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 20, 2023 and Nov 20, 2023) 0.0
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? 0.267048
Oct 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 20, 2023 and Oct 20, 2023) 0.0
Sep 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Aug 20, 2023 and Sep 20, 2023) 0.000645
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? 0.677209
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? 0.028481
Sep 05, 2023 08:34AM UTC Will the Pheu Thai Party be part of a governing coalition in Thailand after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? -0.001687
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023? 0.176601
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? 0.334165
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will the value of 1 US Dollar equal or exceed 800,000 Iranian Rial on the open market (or 80,000 Toman, as reported on Bonbast) before 1 September 2023? 0.434578
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023? -0.000067
Aug 22, 2023 09:00AM UTC Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024? 0.035398
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023? -0.000274
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict? 0.0
Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023) -0.000019
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023? 0.00371
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil? -0.000079
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank? 0.00042
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province? 0.000004
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