1st
Accuracy Rank

SandroAVL

About:

Started forecasting in GJP 2.0, then at INFER (ARLIS-UMD), also collaborating with RANGE from Bertelsmann, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND RFI and Cultivate Labs.

Testing a mental model, based on a set of parameters to increase accuracy, identifying patterns of bias, in order to increase forecast's process gain.

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2025 Season Stats

-1.018284

Relative Brier Score

170

Forecasts

9

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 45 74 170 170 1114
Comments 27 51 159 159 574
Questions Forecasted 12 12 26 26 100
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 3 9 9 297
 Definitions
New Prediction
What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?
SandroAVL made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Less than 62%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%
1% (0%)
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%
99% (0%)
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 74%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
New Prediction
What will the U.S. Space Force budget be in the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act?
SandroAVL made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
7% (0%)
Less than $21.0 billion
80% (0%)
More than or equal to $21.0 billion but less than $22.5 billion
9% (0%)
More than or equal to $22.5 billion but less than $23.5 billion
3% (0%)
More than or equal to $23.5 billion but less than $25.0 billion
1% (0%)
More than or equal to $25.0 billion
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
SandroAVL made their 3rd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
99% (0%)
Less than 30 days
1% (0%)
30 days
0% (0%)
31-60 days
0% (0%)
61-90 days
0% (0%)
91 days or more
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
SandroAVL made their 30th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2% (0%)
Estonia
2% (0%)
Latvia
2% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
SandroAVL made their 38th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
SandroAVL made their 20th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
99% (0%)
No
Dec 14, 2025 to Jun 14, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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