Confirmed previous forecast
-1.018124
Relative Brier Score
114
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 14 | 20 | 114 | 114 | 1058 |
| Comments | 9 | 22 | 129 | 129 | 544 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 92 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 297 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026
99%
(0%)
No
Dec 4, 2025 to Jun 4, 2026
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
2%
(0%)
Latvia
3%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
(0%)
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
(0%)
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
1%
(0%)
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
99%
(0%)
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming last forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Accelerated protocols in order to proceed to the signature of peace agreement
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
98%
(0%)
No
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming last forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Following up wrong info
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-6%)
Yes
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
98%
(+6%)
No
Dec 3, 2025 to Jun 3, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Been thinking about this one all day
I’m aligning with the latest evidence and lowering to 2 %.
NK leader is pragmatic.
Nothing is convincing me that in the given timeframe, the resolution will be positive.
Also, as before:
Ending this season knowing that the other two questions scoring ~0 anyway, final score after Jan 1st 2026 will land around −1.024 to −1.026 instead of −1.039 — easily keeping me #1 with room to spare.😐☝️
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unpredictability. Tuff question.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(+5%)
Yes
Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026
92%
(-5%)
No
Dec 2, 2025 to Jun 2, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Final adjustment
Crowd median has drifted from 1 % → 2 % in the last 72 hours on fresh Maxar imagery and NK News reporting of tunnel reclamation.
My previous 3 % was anchored to the quiet 2024–2025 period; new evidence (steam plumes, vehicle tracks, justifies a further upward adjustment to 8 % while remaining inside the sharp-forecaster range.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This adjustment. Is focused on minimizing score damage at the end of the season
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+2%)
Estonia
2%
(+1%)
Latvia
3%
(+2%)
Lithuania
Why do you think you're right?
Updating. Following up the latest crowdsource estimations.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
no comments
Files