SandroAVL

About:

Started forecasting in GJP2.0, 2020 then at INFER (ARLIS-UMD) 2022, also collaborating with RANGE from Bertelsmann, and since 2023, very happy to learn & colaborate here at RAND RFI and Cultivate Labs.

Testing a mental model, based on a set of parameters to increase accuracy, identifying patterns of bias, in order to increase forecast's process gain.

Top Forecaster - Dec 2025

Top Forecaster - Nov 2025

Oracle - Bronze

Top Forecaster - Oct 2025

View All Badges »

6.510427

Relative Brier Score

283

Forecasts

43

Upvotes

Forecasting Activity

Forecasting Calendar

	Past Week	Past Month	Past Year	This Season	All Time
Forecasts	32	97	397	99	1349
Comments	2	30	248	32	665
Questions Forecasted	8	8	30	8	106
Upvotes on Comments By This User	0	8	30	8	318
Definitions

New Prediction

Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

SandroAVL made their 20th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

35% (0%)

Iván Cepeda

5% (0%)

Sergio Fajardo

52% (0%)

Abelardo de la Espriella

8% (0%)

Other

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC

New Prediction

How many people will earn research doctorates in microbiology and immunology fields in the U.S. between the 2026 and 2030 academic years?

SandroAVL made their 10th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

5% (0%)

Less than or equal to 4,499

15% (0%)

Between 4,500 and 4,999, inclusive

65% (0%)

Between 5,000 and 5,499, inclusive

10% (0%)

Between 5,500 and 5,999, inclusive

5% (0%)

More than or equal to 6,000

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC

New Prediction

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

SandroAVL made their 53rd forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

2% (0%)

Estonia

2% (0%)

Latvia

2% (0%)

Lithuania

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC

New Prediction

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

SandroAVL made their 19th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

2% (0%)

Yes

98% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC

New Prediction

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

SandroAVL made their 18th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

30% (0%)

Yes

70% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC

New Prediction

Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026?

SandroAVL made their 18th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

66% (0%)

Yes

34% (0%)

No

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 06:36PM UTC

New Badge

SandroAVL earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

SandroAVL made their 19th forecast (view all):

Probability

Answer

87% (0%)

U.S. Entity

62% (0%)

Non-U.S. Entity

Confirmed previous forecast

Files

Feb 01, 2026 06:35PM UTC

New Badge

SandroAVL earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Jan 2026

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.

New Badge

SandroAVL earned a new badge:

Star Commenter - Jan 2026

Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).