Scott-Tobias

Scott Tobias
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Associate Professor of Human Development and Family Science

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Aug 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Aug 2, 2024) 0.000471
Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024) 0.00036
Jun 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 2, 2024 and Jun 2, 2024) 0.000465
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.05105
May 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and May 2, 2024) 0.00058
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? 0.000151
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024? -0.000005
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024? 0.079237
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