We are now so close to the end of September that it seems all but assured that this question will resolve to the lowest category (less than or equal to 1).
2.052353
Relative Brier Score
49
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 44 | 44 | 44 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+9%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(-9%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is *exceedingly* unlikely, but a catastrophic and unforeseen series of hurricanes could materialize in the last week (again...very unlikely at this point).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm revising this forecast down to the lowest level possible for "yes" (%1) because it now seems exceedingly unlikely that a lethal conflict will break out between Pakistan and India in the next ~10 days.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hostilities between these countries have erupted suddenly before, so it is possible, however unlikely at this point.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
50%
(-10%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
42%
(+12%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
7%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
1%
(-2%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
I'm revising the probabilities of the two highest-likelihood categories (between 1350 and 1499, and between 1500 and 1649) to be closer in value to each other, acknowledging that considerable uncertainty about this outcome still exists, and revising down the largest category to the lowest probability (1%), acknowledging that it now seems very unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Unexpected outbreaks of measles could still occur within the forecast timeframe. HHS leaders continue to express vaccine skepticism, which creates additional vulnerability to such outbreaks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
90%
(+40%)
Less than or equal to 1
10%
(-20%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-15%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
At this point, if any major hurricanes make landfall in the US in September, it will very likely only be 1, not 2 or more.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hurricanes have been known to form in rapid succession. It is possible that multiple hurricanes could form within 2-3 weeks' time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
Yes
95%
(+5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm revising my forecast down to 5% because the relative lack of headlines on this topic lately makes it increasingly unlikely.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The increasing use of the military near the US-Mexico border and in the Caribbean makes it at least possible that abrupt troop reallocations may happen in the next few weeks.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
I'm updating my forecast to the lowest level of "yes" (1%) because the lack of serious tensions up to this point points to a very low likelihood of a lethal confrontation in the next ~3 weeks.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A miscalculation or misreading of intent could spark tensions again, with a non-zero chance of escalating to lethal force.
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Aug 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
It's unlikely, but there could be a surge of cases in the last week that pushes the outcome into one of the higher categories (e.g. 1650 - 1799).