Steven-Knauer

Steven Knauer
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My First Question

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New Prediction
Steven-Knauer
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on May 15, 2025 03:03AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
Yes
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
98%
No
Apr 15, 2025 to Oct 15, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

They will eventually invade but not in the next 6 months, global pushback would be too strong and other countries would take economic measures in response.

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Why might you be wrong?

Trump might do something unpredictable that leads Xi to think it’s a good time to invade.

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