Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC
(3 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 04, 2025 03:33AM UTC
(15 days ago)
Dec 04, 2025 03:33AM UTC
(15 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 21% | +9% | +1% |
| No | 70% | 79% | -9% | -1% |
In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(13 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 17, 2025 05:16AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Dec 17, 2025 05:16AM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2027 | Mar 17, 2026 | 6% | +4% | +0% |
| No | 90% | Dec 17, 2025 to Jun 17, 2027 | Mar 17, 2026 | 94% | -4% | +0% |