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New Prediction
Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
22%
Yes
78%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump can be unpredictable
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Kim Jon Un
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
26%
Less than or equal to 500
42%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
19%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
10%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
3%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
Tensions are winding down, and more direct control will be taking place
Files
Why might you be wrong?
something could ramp up
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(-36%)
Yes
70%
(+36%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Jensen convinced trump not to impose anything
Files
Why might you be wrong?
trump does what he want
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
66%
(0%)
Yes
34%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files