How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?
Closed Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
- Navigate to ACLED's Gaza Monitor page
- In the upper left-hand corner of the map, select August 1, 2025, to August 31, 2025
- In the bottom right-hand corner, where it says "event totals", the question will resolve with the overall total shown there.
Question clarification
ACLED's Gaza Conflict Monitor, the listed resolution source for this question, has recently been placed behind a paywall. We are actively working to secure access to the monitor to obtain precise resolution data for this question.
In the meantime, for forecasting purposes, we recommend looking at ACLED's publicly available Data Explorer (note that a free account is needed to access it). This draws from the same ACLED database, and you can filter the data to show political violence events in Palestine and use the "Past Week" or "Past Month" filters to track recent incident patterns. Data on the Gaza Strip specifically is located in a box on the right of the map titled "Highest frequency of events." This will give you a sense of the current trend and frequency of political violence incidents, though please note that these show rolling periods with some reporting lag.
Thank you for your patience as we work to ensure accurate resolution data.
Based on our analysis of ACLED's Data Explorer and the available data, we are resolving this question to the 751-1000 range.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 500 | 1% | |
| Between 501 and 750, inclusive | 9% | |
| Between 751 and 1000, inclusive | 59% | |
| Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive | 26% | |
| More than or equal to 1251 | 4% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 123 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 386 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |