How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?

Started May 23, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
Seasons

In early May 2025, Israel’s government approved a plan to expand military operations in the Gaza Strip, potentially including taking control of the territory (Washington Post, Reuters). According to ACLED data, there were 2,289 incidents of political violence in Gaza from 1 January 2025 to 30 April 2025, encompassing battles; airstrikes; shellings and explosive attacks; violence targeting civilians; and property destruction (ACLED). 

Resolution Criteria: 
This question will be resolved using ACLED's Gaza Monitor. To see the total number of political violence incidents in August 2025 (when available):
  • Navigate to ACLED's Gaza Monitor page
  • In the upper left-hand corner of the map, select August 1, 2025, to August 31, 2025
  • In the bottom right-hand corner, where it says "event totals", the question will resolve with the overall total shown there.

Question clarification
Issued on 08/22/25 11:06pm

ACLED's Gaza Conflict Monitor, the listed resolution source for this question, has recently been placed behind a paywall. We are actively working to secure access to the monitor to obtain precise resolution data for this question.

In the meantime, for forecasting purposes, we recommend looking at ACLED's publicly available Data Explorer (note that a free account is needed to access it). This draws from the same ACLED database, and you can filter the data to show political violence events in Palestine and use the "Past Week" or "Past Month" filters to track recent incident patterns. Data on the Gaza Strip specifically is located in a box on the right of the map titled "Highest frequency of events." This will give you a sense of the current trend and frequency of political violence incidents, though please note that these show rolling periods with some reporting lag.

Thank you for your patience as we work to ensure accurate resolution data.

Resolution Notes

Based on our analysis of ACLED's Data Explorer and the available data, we are resolving this question to the 751-1000 range.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than or equal to 500 1%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive 9%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive 59%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive 26%
More than or equal to 1251 4%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 123
Average for questions older than 6 months: 61
Number of Forecasts 386
Average for questions older than 6 months: 233
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.101722
2.
-0.097891
4.
-0.083967
5.
-0.055993

Consensus Trend

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