Confirmed previous forecast
1.031309
Relative Brier Score
180
Forecasts
25
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 180 | 180 | 180 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 163 | 163 | 163 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 42 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
12%
(0%)
Yes
88%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 2, 2025 01:29PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2025 to Apr 2, 2026
100%
(0%)
No
Oct 2, 2025 to Apr 2, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some level of resolution of the situation in Gaza could facilitate a rapprochement between Israel and Some Muslim-majority countries.
Files
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
100%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast, still based on September 23 data.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden spike in cases in the last week of September.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast given the lack of new developments and the time left for this question.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some (literally) last minute incident.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 59
0%
(0%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
100%
(0%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming my previous forecast based on the lack of evolution in the number of cases, now between 70 and 79.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A sudden addition of cases that had not been included before, or the removal of cases that should not have been included for some reason.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Argentina
0%
(0%)
Bolivia
0%
(0%)
Ecuador
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming forecast, given how little time there is left in the question, and the absence of new developments.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I am not really seeing what could happen to change the outcome at this point.
Files