Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 11, 2025 02:56PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Sep 11, 2025 02:56PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 10% | 5% | +5% | -1% |
| Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 10% | 3% | +7% | -1% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 09:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Sep 15, 2025 09:32PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 96% | 95% | +1% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2025 09:38PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Sep 15, 2025 09:38PM UTC
(5 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
| Latvia | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 09, 2025 01:05AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Oct 09, 2025 01:05AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 2% | +10% | -5% |
| No | 88% | 98% | -10% | +5% |