Updating
-0.228505
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Nov 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2025
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
98%
(+3%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Updating
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Less than or equal to 500
14%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
68%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
14%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
3%
More than or equal to 1251
Why do you think you're right?
Since the end of the ceasefire phase 1, there has been a massive ramp up of attacks, whether battle or explosions.
The US vetoes UN Security Council resolution which demanded an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Noting that the resolution would undermine the security of Israel. “Hamas could end this brutal conflict immediately by laying down its arms and releasing all remaining hostages (Marco Rubio)
https://apnews.com/article/gaza-ceasefire-un-security-council-e14ee5e3dc7e8e9a161f058f0381513d
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Both sides agree to the terms of a ceasefire and uphold those terms.
Files
It looks like Israel is attempting a “scorched earth” operation. I’m wondering if after killing the major Hamas Leader Sinwar, how aggressively they need to proceed? The UN cites they are targeting civilians in an “ethnic cleansing.” I’m wondering if Israel may decrease episodic violence to quell the news regarding their efforts of ethnic cleansing?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
Why do you think you're right?
If his first term is any indication of popularity, his approval rating was 42%.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
His current average is sitting at right around 45% so it realistically could go up in the next two months.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
Yes
82%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Geopolitical events can disrupt oil supplies (Gaza Conflict, Russia/Ukraine)
While there are notable geopolitical events happening that may affect crude oil prices, the major effects were felt in 2022/2023.
Typically gas prices rise in the summer months due to travel-- putting additional pressure on the gasoline supply, and refineries shifting to a summer-blend gasoline that temporarily increases gas prices. With this increased demand, prior to 2022/2023, the last time gas was above 3.600 in July was 2014.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Black swan event in the Middle East disrupting supply chain.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Most polls show Cuomo winning in rounds 6-10. With the last mayoral election coming down to 7,000 votes and the median age of NYC residents is 38 years old and his opponent, Zohran Mamdani is favorable among the younger demographic
Why might you be wrong?