Updating forecast to 0% (i.e. <0.5%) given weekly gas prices have further decreased since my last forecast, previous rationale still holds, and end date is only 8 days out.
-0.001761
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
100%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Gas prices would have to shoot up by an unprecedented amount but one can never exclude black swan events.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-8%)
Yes
98%
(+8%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Previous rationale still holds. Adjusting forecast to reflect OPEC+ decision to increase oil output and a decrease in gas prices for the first week of July.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As before. Plus unexpected tariff moves. However, the impact is unlikely to be big enough or show in prices fast enough to push July average up by over 10%.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Why do you think you're right?
- The current average price for all grades is at $3.276, going to $3.6 would be a significant increase
- Despite higher values in the past few years, over the past 10 years, gas prices have on average slightly decreased from June to July
- High values in recent years happened in a high inflation environment, inflation has cooled and--while it may rise due to tariffs--is unlikely to climb back to levels seen in recent years
- The Israel-Iran conflict began June 13, gas prices have had half a month to stabilize and have done so at a lower level than expected. The conflict is now ended
- High US oil production will soften any blows from further mideast tensions (as evidenced last month)
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- There is a chance that the conflict will flare up again but this is unlikely, given US and Iranian appetite for further conflict is low and Israel (and Netanyahu) sees many objectives as accomplished
- There is a chance Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of renewed escalation but this is very unlikely given its dependence on oil revenues. It might even face pressure from China
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Essentially impossible at this point.
Why might you be wrong?
Essentially no reason now.