Only 7 days remain with no heightened tensions.
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Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Sep 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It only takes one incident
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
0%
(-1%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
98%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
2%
(+1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
National news reported a new outbreak with at least 40 cases. This takes us past 1500 cases.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The current outbreak and updating of previous weeks could take us past 1650
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(+1%)
Less than or equal to 1
0%
(-1%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
7 days left. Currently at 0. One current storm that will stay away from land. Two possible storms forming in the next 7 days. Physically impossible for the one in the eastern Atlantic to make landfall before the end of September.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Would take the fastest moving storm (which would also make it likely to not be a major hurricane).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
1%
(-15%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
98%
(+15%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
37 more cases reported over the last week bringing the total to 1491 with two weeks remaining in the reporting period. With headroom of 8 it is highly improbably that the threshold isn't breached.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There is the possibility of a major outbreak.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-4%)
Yes
99%
(+4%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Chinese summit that India's PM attended is a sign of cooperation
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Between the two countries there are millions in uniform and it only takes one person.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+27%)
Less than or equal to 1
1%
(-26%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
3 weeks left in forecast period. No major hurricanes have made land fall yet. Additionally, none currently forming - potential that something may in the next 7 days. Getting two major hurricanes to make landfall within two weeks is unprecedented.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Its mother nature
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
16%
(-47%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
83%
(+49%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
1%
(-1%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
0%
(-1%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
Total went up 23 this week to 1454, leaving headspace of 45 with 3 weeks remaining. While historically 15/week in September would be high, the week after week upward revisions this summer have all exceeded 15/week.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
If there are delays in reporting, changes to reporting incentives, or a major outbreak.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
63%
(-13%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
34%
(+13%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
2%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
1%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Why do you think you're right?
The last two weeks show 2 and 11 cases but in that time the total changed by 56, so there are significant delays in reporting. With the total now at 1431, there is headroom for 68 in the 1350-1499 category. With 4 weeks remaining in the forecast period, that is 17 or fewer cases per week. Historically this is not surpassed in September. This means that the probability of remaining below 1499 should approach 100%. The challenge is that the data collection and reporting seems erratic, meaning that there is a non-trivial chance that the 1500 threshold will be broken. Additionally, the start of school provides the unlikely possibility of a major outbreak.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It takes just one major outbreak and school is back in session
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Currently at 1514 with one week to go.
Why might you be wrong?
There have been news reports of a major outbreak but it would need to be very large and captured quickly to break 1650.