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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Aug 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 15, 2024 and Aug 15, 2024) 0.026361
Jul 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 15, 2024 and Jul 15, 2024) 0.067
Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024) 0.032196
Jun 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between May 15, 2024 and Jun 15, 2024) 0.055287
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.020504
May 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 15, 2024 and May 15, 2024) 0.01768
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024) 0.05443
Apr 01, 2024 04:00PM UTC What will be the highest price per barrel of Brent crude oil between 4 December 2023 and 31 March 2024? -0.005866
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023? -0.01537
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024) -0.000002
Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 15, 2023 and Mar 18, 2024) 0.046468
Mar 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 15, 2024 and Mar 15, 2024) 0.028303
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024? 0.000775
Feb 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 15, 2024 and Feb 15, 2024) 0.103026
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report? 0.019876
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? -0.00024
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000325
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.032617
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023) 0.0
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.326415
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