Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024)
Started
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Topics
Seasons
In October 2022, Michel Aoun completed his term as president of Lebanon, but the Lebanese parliament has yet to appoint his successor (PBS). Internal tensions between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi/U.S. factions have left the parliament unable to elect a successor despite multiple votes, and the country remains in the hands of a caretaker administration (Associated Press, Reuters). This extended period without a president presents a serious risk to Lebanon’s national security and ability to combat its economic crisis (GIS, Crisis Group).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve “Yes” if reputable open-source news reports indicate that the Lebanese parliament has appointed a president.
This question is a resolved time period from Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | |
| No | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 41 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 61 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 212 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 233 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |